Paper Trader

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Signal Feed — Digital Intern View All Signals →

Live portfolio

total value
cash
return vs capital
vs SPY (same period)
max drawdown
cash deployed
🐒 monkey rank
active rnd
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Net worth ($ total value)   Capital basis (deposits)   SPY (% from same start)   ↑ buy   ↓ sell
Drawdown from peak (%)

Returns over time — deposit-adjusted portfolio % change over standard windows

1d
5d
1m
3m
ytd
1y
3y
5y
all

Daily briefing

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Urgent overnight news

    Since you last looked — material events in the window, ranked (no snapshot scanning)

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    wheneventdetail
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    Trade suggestions — co-pilot, not auto-executed

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    actiontickerconv. priceqty newsRSI reasonsheadline
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    Risk panel

    concentration top1
    top3 weight
    leveraged %
    SPY -3% shock
    median age (d)
    stale positions

    🧨 Position blow-up ladder — each held name shocked alone, idiosyncratic (no beta)

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    tickerweight −10%−25% −50%to zero
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    Earnings radar — scheduled gap risk on holdings & watchlist

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    ML scorer · per-position outlook — predicted 5-day forward return from DecisionScorer MLP

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    ticker pred 5d verdict RSI MACD mom 5d mom 20d news
    no open stock positions

    Position thesis — per-holding integrated view: news, scorer, technicals, last decision, verdict

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    Drawdown anatomy — current DD from peak with per-position contribution

    current equity
    peak equity
    current drawdown from peak
    max drawdown (trough)
    time in DD
    recovered
    Per-position contribution
    tickerqtycost pxP/L $P/L % drag
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    Confidence calibration & signal attribution — do high-confidence trades actually win? which signal types pay?

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    By Opus confidence
    bucketnwin % avg retavg conf
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    By signal source
    sourcenwin % avg retbest / worst
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    Recent realized trades
    buy → selltickerreturn confsourcereasoning
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    Capital deployment & liquidity — is the book pinned with no dry powder?

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    cash
    deployed
    positions
    top weight
    unrealized P/L
    last entry

    Decision pipeline health — is the live Opus trader actually deciding? NO_DECISION = parse failure

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    cycles (24h)
    parse-fail (24h)
    fills (24h)
    avg confidence
    since last fill
    signals / cycle
    cycles (all-time)
    parse-fail (all-time)
    fills (all-time)
    Action mix (all-time)
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    Recent cycles
    timeoutcomeaction confsignals
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    Decision failure forensics — WHY a cycle produced no decision, with the raw Opus excerpt

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    failures
    rate (24h)
    retry-exhausted
    dominant mode
    open mkt fail%
    closed mkt fail%
    Failure modes
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    Hourly parse-fail (last 24h)
    Decision-loss clock — parse-fail by UTC hour (current regime; folds every day onto one 24h clock so a recurring host-load window shows)
    Recent failures — raw Opus excerpt
    timemodemktexcerpt
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    Decision drought drift — what the bot's inaction cost: portfolio vs S&P while it wasn't trading

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    fills / cycles
    droughts
    paralysis droughts
    involuntary alpha bleed
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    Droughts (newest first) — alpha = portfolio% − S&P% over the idle window
    starthrscyckind ND%port%spy%alpha%
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    News edge — does a high ai_score headline actually predict the move? (SPY-abnormal)

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    lookback
    articles
    resolved
    tickers priced
    ref horizon
    Forward return by ai_score band — mean abnormal % (raw in muted)
    ai_score bandn@ref 1d abn3d abn5d abn ref hit%
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    Urgent vs normal — 3d abnormal %

    Scorer reliability — how far DecisionScorer predictions actually land from reality

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    directional accuracy
    mean abs error
    90% residual band
    replay samples
    Held positions — prediction with empirical band
    tickerpred 5dlikely range verdictband hit %trust
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    Calibration by prediction band
    predicted bandnmean actual residual P10/P90MAEdir. acc.
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    Scorer ⇄ Opus disagreement — where the ML safety net and Opus are fighting on held positions

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    high conflict
    medium
    aligned
    positions
    tickerscorer verdictpred 5d last Opus actionconflictread
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    Portfolio analytics

    today's P/L
    max drawdown (all-time)
    sharpe (ann.)
    win rate
    avg winner
    avg loser
    realized P/L
    profit factor
    sortino (ann.)
    calmar
    S&P β
    S&P corr
    avg hold
    Sector exposure

    Behavioural edge — payoff ratio, breakeven win-rate, the disposition effect

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    expectancy / trade
    payoff ratio
    win-rate (actual)
    breakeven win-rate
    realized P/L
    round-trips (W/L)
    avg winner
    avg loser
    winner / loser hold
    disposition gap

    Loser autopsy — why each closed trade lost: verbatim thesis, hold, failure mode

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    total realised loss
    losing round-trips
    avg loss
    median hold
    dominant mode
    tickerP/L $P/L % hold dmodeopening thesis
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    Winner autopsy — why each closed trade won: verbatim thesis, hold, success mode

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    total realised gain
    winning round-trips
    avg gain
    median hold
    dominant mode
    tickerP/L $P/L % hold dmodeopening thesis
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    Track record — per-name closed-trade memory: the verbatim history the trader now sees in its own prompt

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    names traded
    closed round-trips
    worst name (net)
    best name (net)
    tickerW-Lnet $ closedlast modelast opening thesis
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    Concentration honesty — pairwise return ρ & effective independent bets

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    mean pairwise ρ
    effective bets
    naive eff. positions
    top weight
    most-coupled pair
    pairρ
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    Capital paralysis — the trap, its cost, and the single sale that unlocks it

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    cash
    deployed
    can act?
    cycles since fill
    alpha bled
    Unlock ladder — desk cut-priority (biggest loser first)
    tickerweight%P/L% frees $cash if sold aloneunlocks?
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    Open-book alpha — how much of the open P&L is selection vs just SPY

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    book alpha vs SPY
    net excess $
    unrealized $
    SPY-equiv $
    anchored names
    tickerpos %SPY % alpha %excess $
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    Overtrading & churn — how often it re-buys a name it just closed, and how fast

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    fast re-entries
    round-trips / day
    median hold
    sub-day trips
    loss in <1d trips
    Fastest same-name re-entries
    tickergap (d)prior P/L $closed → re-bought
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    Thesis drift — is the reason each position was opened for still true?

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    tickerhealthP/L % held (d)entry rationale → current drift
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    Signal-feed health — is the live trader receiving any news, or flying blind?

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    blind streak (0-signal cycles)
    newest live article age
    live articles (2h / 24h)
    split-brain DB

    Runner heartbeat — is the decision loop still cycling, or has it wedged/died?

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    since last decision
    intervals elapsed
    expected cadence
    market

    Decision reliability — headline NO_DECISION % vs the true post-restart rate

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    current-regime fail
    headline fail (legacy-incl)
    current sample / total
    legacy dead rows
    dead cycles / day

    ML gate edge — does the DecisionScorer earn its complexity OUT OF SAMPLE, or would a one-line rule do?

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    MLP rank-IC (OOS)
    best one-liner
    IC gap (MLP − best)
    OOS pairs / scorer n_train
    a read-only honesty diagnostic — the gate stays live at n_train ≥ 500 regardless (invariant #5); the value is knowing whether it is modulating real position sizing on signal or on noise.

    Funded suggestions — which BUY/ADD idea is fundable, and the sale that unlocks it

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    actionable ideas
    funded now
    partial (cash + sale)
    unlockable via sale
    unfundable
    pairing
    ideaconvnotional $ fundabilitysell to fundfrees $
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    Signal follow-through — did it act on the news it saw, and did acting pay (vs SPY)?

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    follow-through
    acted / ignored
    selection edge (ref)
    acted abn% @ref
    ignored abn% @ref
    resolved / signals

    News source edge — which of ~17 collectors' scored headlines actually precede the move (vs SPY)?

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    collector abn% @ref hit resolved verdict

    Behavioural scorecard — do the independent behavioural checks agree on a problem? (no grade, just concordance)

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    checkverdictwhat it says

    Sector pulse — semis & optical

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    DRAM / semis heatmap — 5d momentum & news pulse

    SOXX baseline: —
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    Deduped signals — syndication collapsed, urgency decayed (halflife 4h)

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    Open positions

    tickertypeqty avgnow SLTP total $% port P/LP/L % held

    Recent trades

    timeactionticker qtypricereason

    MACD Signals — per-ticker momentum scan · ⚡ = high-conviction cross-up below zero

    ticker price RSI MACD hist EMA200 signal headline
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    Trade outcomes — closed round-trip statistics · win rate · expectancy · hard-exit attribution

    round trips
    win rate
    expectancy
    profit factor
    avg win: avg loss: last 20: hard SL exits: hard TP exits:

    Decision log

    timeopen?signals actionequityreasoning

    Model leaderboard — ranked by avg yearly vs-SPY % · 🐒 random baseline anchored at the bottom

    # model n runs vs SPY / yr best % worst % vs SPY total beats 🐒
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    Backtest equity curves

    last update: —
    avg annualized
    total % (mean / median)
    best
    worst
    beat SPY
    win rate
    filtered runs
    Window:
    Model:
    Median P25–P75 P5–P95 Actual SPY median
    Max drawdown distribution (% below peak, by day from start)

    Multi-dimensional analysis

    Duration × era × return — three ways to read the same 500+ runs simultaneously.
    Duration vs annualized return each dot = one run · click to drill in · color = market era
    Era × duration performance heatmap avg annualized return % per cell · (n = run count)

    Model progress — return by cycle

    Best / avg / worst return per cycle of 5 runs. Upward trend = model improving.

    Signal Integrity

    Permutation test + label contamination audit. Runs every 10 backtest cycles in the background.
    SIGNIFICANT (p<0.05) means signal time-ordering carries real predictive value, not random noise.
    Permutation Test
    p=— · z=—
    Label Contamination
    High = Claude labels carry hindsight
    (retroactively-collected articles)
    Last Validation

    Runs table — click a row to highlight

    # status total % ann. %/yr vs SPY window dur. trades signals